Sunday, 13 January 2019

Craft Beer Predictions for 2019

Like most predictive posts, this one has serious belief twinged with hyperbolic projection. Nonetheless, I thought I'd share some of my visions of the coming year in craft beer.

Prediction 1: People will start to realize that milkshakes and bruts are no substitute for the hazy successor to the American IPA.

It ain't really about the haze, it's about the juice, but NEIPA aren't going anywhere. Brut and Milkshakes though? I know very few people who even like these styles at all or much, and certainly nowhere near the numbers of those who <3 the West Coast and New England versions of the American IPA. Yeah, maybe I just want milkshakes to die, and maybe they won't entirely. Nonetheless, though, I maintain that in five years we'll look back on them as we currently reflect on the Black IPA - even though those were far superior to all but the best milkshakes.

Prediction 2:  Before the milkshake madness ends, someone will brew a milkshake zwickel/keller/kölsch or some equally ridiculous nonsense contaminating a clean and/or Reinheitsgebot style.

I mean, it may well be a DDH zwickel (or gruit?!?!) or some other wacky pursuit of the new, but it will be a failure nonetheless.

In fact, it's likely to come from some brewery who pumps out 700 new beers annually rather than perfecting a current one.

Yeah, this prediction is half facetious... but only half. I mean, how far from beer can we go? How far from style? (Don't get me wrong of course: it is in innovation and transformation that new styles are born and I truly applaud this when done thoughtfully.) As much as I abhor sounding like those non-craft drinkers who lament craft beer for allegedly 'not tasting like beer' (when they have no historical understanding of the styles that predate their beloved corn-syrup-fueled race-to-the-bottom macro lager), but how far from beer will we go? Can we simply make good beer, not weird limited beer and try to focus on that?

Speaking of which...


Prediction 3: Brasserie Auval will release yet another great beer, alongside several decent but immensely overvalued ones.


While brewmaster Ben Couillard is an excellent brewer and while all of his products are at least solid (though I am not sure I understand Braggot or even Double Nordet), there is no perfect brewer. Yes, even Shaun Hill and Jean Van Roy have released products below their legendary bests.

Auval has some tremendous beers (*cough* Trifolium, Nordet, Grisettes *cough*) and the rest are generally good to very good (saisons, fruited sours, Super A), while a few are simply fine. They certainly beat many a shelf beer, even at their worst, yet that gets to the crux of the matter: the fact that they aren't found on shelves in Quebec's largest market converges nicely with a trend in craft beer that I hate - the ongoing pursuit of the rarest/newest beer over the best.

Don't get me wrong, I also seek new untappd beers and badges (and once foolishly traded Fou'Foune for a pastry stout), and appreciate the chance to buy a rare product, but a product shouldn't be seen as great or more valuable BECAUSE it's harder to get, but rather because it is superior (which then legitimately boosts value in conjunction with scarcity). I'm not saying Auval's product is all hype - much isn't - but the after-market value on these beers needs to simmer down.

The result here is decent beers (in abundance in some parts of the province) being traded for epic rarities of greater value (in cost, scarcity, and quality terms) because of uneven distribution compounded by beer geek overhype. If you think I'm wrong, Trifolium hit Montreal at 1 per person and sold out before launch due to massive lines, while a guy I entered in trade discussions with claims to have brought 48 bottles from the Gaspé and wanted BA Hill Farmstead for each one... AND THAT IS ONE OF THE GREAT AUVAL BEERS.

Hence, the other crucial part of my prediction: Auval will launch a great beer, but trading for it and 4 others at that price to determine which is the one perhaps worth the cost of entry is evidence of flawed perceptions - with no disrespect to a phenomenal brewer.

Prediction 4: Everyone will (pretend to be) shocked when ____________ sells to a macro.

I have no inside scoop, beyond any oft-repeated rumours, but you can fill in the blank and rest assured that as craft continues to boom, the macros will continue to pursue shelf, tap, and brand dominance with dollar figures that may be a pittance to them but offer lifetime security for the owners of small operations and their families.

Don't blame the seller though, blame the system. By that, I mean capitalism.

Prediction 5: My cellar will continue to grow despite my best intentions to shrink it - and I will not be alone.

Somehow I've got like 400 bottles/cans in my cellar. This was never the intention, and I've even now had beers go bad. Further, despite periodic attempts to keep the inventory up to date and to avoid spoilage, the reality of working/parent life keeps things from getting dwindled.

The chaos began when I'd have a chance to buy something like 48 PMB and I'd buy 48 (or more realistically 24). Then I'd drink and trade 12 and accumulations would ensue.

During the past 2 years or so, I have reduced my RIS purchases, for example, from 4+ bottles to 2 of high quality product (one to drink and one to age) or sometimes just one, but it bodes well for craft beer that there are simply more quality offerings to select.

When I moved to Quebec in 2012, there really was one imperial stout worth buying and so I'd hoard that BA delight. But now, there are many and I have switched from buying too many of one beer to buying one of far too many beers.

I don't know if this is a condition and therapeutic confession, but it is a warning: don't let good beer rot.


Anyway, I wish you all a happy new year, a frothy new beer, and nothing but the best in 2019. Cheers!

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